Thursday, June 29, 2006

Food for thought

Having read analysts reports in a professional capacity, I've certainly had cause to doubt them occasionally, as I've witnessed turkey after turkey get glowing "buy" or "hold" recommendations from allegedly independent analysts.

Having said that, I love -- LOVE -- a new feature by the Globe's personal finance columnist Rob Carrick. Using the Bloomberg database, Carrick has compiled two dream portfolios: one full of stocks that analysts love (meaning, a consensus "buy" rating) and the other comprised of stocks they by and large hate (with "sell" ratings as a whole)

What could be more fun than grading analysts' picks by tracking their performance?

The results? Although it's still early days, it's interesting to note that the "hate" portfolio has gotten out of the gate quickly, its net value up more than 2% since March 1. Ordinarily 2% would be nothing to write home about, but given the market's slide as a whole (to speak nothing of the "love" portfolio's dismal 10% slide in the same period) and admittedly, much of the discrepancy can be attributed to DOV Pharmaceutical losing 88% of its value on the "buy" side. But things like this are important to remember the next time I catch myself getting too high -- or low -- on any given stock's prospects.

At the end of the day, none of us really know what we're doing!

No comments: